Future Scenarios and Price of Natural Gas in the Next Months

2025 promises to be a complex year for the natural gas market in Italy and Europe. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in prices due to geopolitical factors, global demand and supply strategies. For families and businesses, this could translate into higher bills and higher management costs.

Expected Gas Price Increase in 2025

Recent analysis suggests that the price of natural gas could exceed 50 euros per megawatt hour in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 34 euros recorded at the beginning of 2024. This increase is mainly due to:

• Geopolitical tensions : The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and instability in the Middle East continue to impact the global energy market.
• Dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) : Europe imports an increasing share of LNG, making it vulnerable to competition from Asia, particularly from China.
• European Energy Policies : The transition to renewables is still ongoing and gas remains a key element in the energy mix.

Impact on Household and Business Bills

The increase in gas prices will be directly reflected in bills. It is estimated that a typical family in the free market could experience an increase in annual expenditure on gas and electricity of approximately 272 euros , reaching a total expenditure of 2,841 euros (+11%).

For businesses , the increase in prices could translate into an increase in costs of around 1.6 billion euros in 2025 , with consequent pressure on the prices of goods and services.

Mitigation Strategies and Government Interventions

To counteract price volatility and ensure security of supply, the Italian government is adopting some key measures:

• Early filling of strategic storage : Italy will start stockpiling gas as early as February 2025, rather than waiting until spring, to avoid summer price increases.
• Call for European price cap : Italy is urging the EU to maintain a cap of 60 euros per megawatt hour to prevent speculation and excessive price increases.
• Energy efficiency incentives : promoting solutions to reduce energy consumption and increase the self-sufficiency of businesses and families.

Conclusion

2025 will be a year of great challenges for the natural gas market, with possible price increases that will impact families and companies. Monitoring the evolution of the market and adopting energy saving strategies will be essential to address uncertainty. The role of government and EU policies will be crucial to contain price volatility and ensure energy security.